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Since the outbreak began 45 days ago, health officials have urged people to stay at least six feet apart when leaving the house to pick up essential items. Since social distancing and “stay at home” orders began, there has been a “flattening of the curve of cases” which have begun to level off.
According to a study published in the journal Science this week, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health researchers projected that if social distancing isn’t practiced, it could lead to more waves and a more severe pandemic.
The study ran through various potential scenarios that the country could experience through 2025. Researchers said that the pandemic could last through 2022, and require different levels of social distancing until then.
“To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022,” they said. “Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity.”
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said that it could take 12 to 18 months for doctors to develop a treatment for the virus before a vaccine is eventually tested and approved by the FDA, even as the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in the region have begun to stabilize.
"Less effective one-time distancing efforts may result in a prolonged single-peak epidemic, with the extent of strain on the healthcare system and the required duration of distancing depending on the effectiveness," the study's authors wrote. "Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or treatment or vaccine becomes available."
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